Chapter 4 – The Speculum

Probability; A term always associated with a future event. Like a coin that is going to be tossed. We never calculate the probability of an event that has already occurred, or is happening. Because the sample space would always be 1, and hence the probability also.Does this hold good for every scenario? Surprisingly no. When I say I see a cloud of electrons revolving a proton, I am referring to the probable electron positions. Likewise, when I refer to the electron cloud which was there, which is there, and which would be there, I am talking of probability of past, present and future.Another interesting point, in case of an electron cloud is that the probability never changes. Whether an event has happened or not, the probability stays intact. That sounds very logical, but, I feel there is an anomaly in the case where, “before tossing a coin there is 50% chance of it falling on heads. Once it falls on heads, its 100% and when it does not its 0%.”  Something fundamentally wrong, in this case and millions of other cases we see in our day to day life. Where the future is unpredictable and probability is just an approximation. But, this is not the case in an electron cloud. Why?

I flipped the page, only to find emptiness. That is the last post he has made. Interesting , though incomplete. To know more about this, I must find Hector. There is no point in just sitting here and staring at that empty page. It is like trying to hack an RSA key, theoretically possible, but very unlikely. Or a better analogy would be, like Mr. Firmage cracking this case. That may not even be possible in theory. Firmage, what a pity it is that I now have to go and meet him in his office and put my own patience and mental strength to test.

The Brownian motion of thoughts and anxieties got accelerated as I sipped Caffeine. But that did not last long. Once again the clock’s dong played the circuit breaker’s role and I realized I am running out of time to get ready.

I was turning on the ignition of my car when the notepad again came into my mind. What would be the probability of Firmage cracking this case? Zero? When an event has a zero or 100% probability, it remains the same before and after. Is it? Hector would be happy with my find, in case he has not already inferred this. As I rode through the busy traffic, Hector’s idea of probability and its anomaly kept hitting my mind, until I found the big board which read Department of Police.

As I finished explaining to the receptionist about my situation, I felt a mild tap on my back. As I turned back I found Firmage standing in front of me.

“Hello, Larry. Shall we go ahead with the discussion?”

“Yes, I suppose. That is why I am here.” I replied.

What followed was a routine questioning session. Asked me a dozen of straight forward questions like when I saw Hector for the last time, for how many years I know him, when did he called me last time etc.

I moved out of the questioning room, shook hands with the officers, and I saw Firmage was standing there, probably waiting for me.

“Larry, that was pretty smooth. Wasn’t it?”

“Yeah, well. But I am worried what happened to Hector. Any clues yet?” I knew there would be little progress, if people like Firmage are working on the case.

“No. No major breakthroughs yet. But soon, I am going to crack this. Don’t worry.”

Well, what is he? Some kind of eternal optimist? I felt sad and frustrated over this man’s irrational confidence.

“Larry, I think I left Hector’s notepad at your place. A very rare case of carelesness from my side. I hope you have it. Don’t you?”

For an instance I felt, I should reply with a no, but I didn’t want to get into trouble for no reason. “Yes. I didn’t bring it though. I will get it you when I pass by this way next time.”

“No, no, it is perfectly alright. I will drop into your house and collect it.”

“When, not now is it?” I wanted to take a copy of the notepad; it has a wealth of information.

“No, I will give you a call, before I do.”

“That would be fine.” I replied with a silent sigh of relief.

“And here is something you are going to love. The Tempest, which I had promised you. I am sure you are going to come back to me for more.”

“Thank you, but, I don’t think I will find time to read this. Maybe sometime later…”

“Oh come on! You should be ashamed to say that. Just give it a start and it will take you along.”

I felt it was better not to argue but to accept this worthless gift. I silently slipped it into my pocket and walked towards the parking space. Just as I was a few meters away from my car, I felt my phone vibrating in my pocket. As I took out my phone and looked at it, I got stunned by what I saw. It was Hector calling!

I ran into the car got inside and took the call.

“Hello Hector! Where are you? What is happening?” I had so many questions to ask but, few words were coming out of my mouth.

“Hello! Hello! Is it Larry?”

Yes, indeed it was the very familiar Hector’s voice. But, he sounded equally confused and clueless.

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